Deeper setback, downside risks now

Day trade update and view

A Friday setback below .7203 support and to prod the December-January up trend line, to just hold the .7167 level at .7168, building on the mid-January setback and rejecting upside forces from the prior surge above .7272/78  resistance peaks to .7314, switching risks lower for Monday. 

Day trade setup

• We see a downside bias for .7168/67 and .7146; a break here aims for .7126/17 and maybe .7079.
• But above .7231 opens risk up to .7277 and possibly .7314.

Intermediate-term outlook

The early December push above key .7171/73 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.

• Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 7371 and .7556.
• What changes this? Below .7079 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.